At the November meeting of the International Wine Club Association in Lisbon we held a long discussion on the demographic changes in the countries around the world and how they affect wine consumption and marketing. At the end of the session there was little doubt that the combination of births/deaths/emigration lead to one conclusion. Almost every single market in the world ... except the US ... is shrinking. The US shows only slight growth, based mostly on emigration into the country. However the US is far and away the strongest market for wine growth over the next 20 years. All other wine markets are already saturated as far as per-capita consumption and will directly reflect shrinking population in their total wine consumption data,

Back in the early 70's the US experienced its first "Golden Age" as we finally became aware of wine at a serious level and the Baby Boomers turned to wine as the beverage of choice. Now is that awareness has matured into a genuine acceptance of wine and the word is spreading right at a time when the market is open to scores of new products from around the world.

You, as a private Wine Consultant are on the cusp of a great opportunity, because consumers need the services offered direct-sales more than ever. The following article that appeared on Bloomberg.com recently will only confirm these conclusions.

U.S. to Become World's Largest Wine Market by 2008, Study Shows

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will become the world's largest wine market by 2008, overtaking France, Germany and Italy in terms of the amount of wine sold, a study commissioned by the Vinexpo wine industry trade fair showed.

In three years, wine sales in the U.S. will total 3.69 billion standard-sized bottles, or 29 percent more than in 2003, according to a report by International Wines & Spirits Record commissioned by Vinexpo. The value of these sales will rise 45 percent to $24.21 billion, the report showed.

Americans won't become the world's biggest wine drinkers. That title goes to Italians, whose country is the biggest producer. They will drink 65.3 bottles per person a year by 2008, the study projected. On average, each American's wine consumption will total 17.5 bottles a year in three years, too little to figure in the world's top 10, while almost three bottles more than in 2003.

``Americans are turning their back on the hard liquor and cocktails that their parents drank and turning to wine,'' said Jean-Marie Chadronnier, Vinexpo's president and chief executive of Bordeaux wine-producing and trading company CVBG-Dourthe- Kressmann. He spoke yesterday at a Paris presentation of the report's findings.

U.S. consumers are also spending more on what goes into their glass. Wines costing less than $5 a bottle, which account for three-quarters of wine sales, have lost ground to their more expensive competitors. A standard bottle contains 75 centiliters (or 0.198 gallons).

Small Companies to Struggle

More than two-thirds of the wine sold in the U.S. will be homegrown, because the U.S. is only the world's third-largest wine- importer after Germany and the U.K., the study showed.

Consolidation is taking place in the U.S. and the U.K., as well as in Australia, the world's fifth-largest wine producer, among companies that produce and distribute wine.

``Wine is a mass market that's growing and small companies are struggling,'' said Cedric Louboutin, who covers the wine industry for Paris brokerage Fideuram Wargny, commenting on Foster's Group Ltd.'s A$3.1 billion ($2.4 billion) offer for Southcorp Ltd.

The report predicts wine sales, measured by the amount sold, will probably rise 6.4 percent in the 10 largest wine markets, namely Argentina, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Romania, South Africa, Spain, U.K. and the U.S. These account for more than two- thirds of global wine sales.

``This doesn't even include the huge opportunities in Asia, particularly in China,'' said Robert Beynat, Vinexpo's managing director.

The study also highlights problems of overproduction. Wine made in the 10 main producing countries, which account for 83 percent of world production, will increase 9.5 percent to 237.5 million hectolitres, or 31.7 billion standard-sized bottles, by 2008, the report estimates.

That means by 2008 overproduction will total about 4.15 billion bottles of wine, the report estimates. This will mean `problems and pain,'' for wine-makers in France, the world's largest wine-exporting nation, Chadronnier said. The French are set to cut by 10 percent the amount of wine they buy by 2008.

The study was based on information provided by governments and 1,000 producers, distributors and brokers in 28 wine-producing countries and 110 countries where wine is sold.